Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Both writes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
